Beating the NBA

The NBA is probably the hardest sport to beat other than to the NFL. Fortunately, it’s still possible to make some money on the Association despite the sharp lines and dramatic players. To be able to beat pro basketball there are some tough facts that must first be realized.

Basketball is similar to baseball in that it is more qualified to be considered a marathon than a sprint in terms of sports wagering. This simply means that bettors must learn to cope with the occasional slump and ride out those hot streaks.  Like every other type of gambling, money management is paramount.

Don’t be afraid to bet when you’re hot, but stay within the realm of modesty; the last thing you want to do when betting pro basketball is get too cocky. If you do notice that you’re experiencing a minor winning drought, reduce your action until you get comfortable again.

Basketball is a tough sport to make money on; it’s not uncommon for expert handicappers to hit between 50 to 58 percent for a basketball season. Considering there are 82 regular-season games played by 30 teams, this percentage actually yields a respectable profit if the bettor is playing a majority of these games.

Another thing to take note of in the NBA is that the lines are accurate; it’s tough going finding good value. This said, if you only play games when you feel you’re getting a great number, you’re going to be sidelined a whole lot.

So don’t neglect any opportunities to get involved. This doesn’t simply mean that you should gamble unrestrained — just don’t play ridiculous lines despite how much you might favor a side.  Provided that you can avoid mistakes like these and intelligently handicap viable games, you’ll end up making money more times than you end up getting stung, most times by a point or two.

After you’ve got a couple solid seasons under your belt, it will become easier to pinpoint smart plays within the NBA. This wisdom will eventually present itself through analyzing the players, staying up-to-date on all material, understanding good situational handicapping and by simply watching the games. When these things become instinctual, you’ll have a good feel for the NBA.

When it comes to betting totals vs. betting sides, things get interesting. For one, bookmakers adjust totals much quicker than sides. Overs/Unders can be hard to get involved in unless you have a complete understanding of what you’re dealing with. That said, it’s difficult for both bettors and oddsmakers to gauge a total when a half-court team is up against fast-paced opposition.

For example, if you notice that a team scheduled for its fourth or fifth game in one week, it’s generally assumed that the team is at a disadvantage. This makes playing a side fairly easy. Conversely, playing a total in this same situation becomes a whole different beast; how do you distinguish whether this is an advantage or a disadvantage? It could be argued that fatigued players make for poor shooting, and thus lower shooting percentages. Yet this might just as easily mean fatigued players also play poor defense.

It is reasons like these that make handicapping sides easier than totals in the NBA. Additionally, you’re never quite sure when players are going to bring their “A” game. In college basketball, this is not the case as players are generally bringing it every single game.  The key to this is being as accurate as humanly possible when predicting whether or not an NBA team will be on top of things for a particular game, specifically during long road trips.

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