Betting Baseball Totals

Baseball is an entirely different type of sport to handicap compared to football and basketball. Those latter two include pointspreads to differentiate between the underdog and favorite, whereas baseball uses a moneyline as a basis for establishing the relative value of the two opposing teams. Wagering on a favorite in baseball will often require the bettor to lay down a hefty price for his/her team. It’s not uncommon in baseball for a favorite to be tagged at -200, -250 or even -300 and above. This creates a much smaller margin of error in order to earn a profit, with the bettor having to be correct more than 75% of the time, unlike the 52.4% that is the break-even point for the standard 11:10 pointspread wagering. Furthermore, baseball underdogs lose much more than half the time; thus, choosing the wrong dogs can result in a quickly depleted bankroll.

Additionally, baseball is the sole betting sport in which the line is affected by a single player in the starting lineup. In basketball, a team may be adjusted from a six-point favorite down to a three-point favorite if a key player is going to miss the game due to an injury. A similar four- or five-point pointspread adjustment is commonplace for a key football injury as well. However, baseball prices are, in most cases, greatly affected by the starting pitcher. If the starting pitcher is injured before a scheduled game, that team may shift entirely toward the opposite end of the moneyline, even if every other player remains unchanged. It is this type of dramatic price adjustment that makes baseball a significant challenge for any handicapper.

Betting totals in baseball is also very different than betting totals in football and basketball. Basketball totals are set almost entirely by the pace that the two teams are projected to play at and by the teams’ respective offensive and defensive capabilities. Yet the result will still be that the game goes Over or Under the total based on two factors unrelated to the pace: free-throw attempts and shooting percentage. Additionally, the way a game is officiated will have a dramatic impact on the totals. On nights where the refs are unwilling to let the two teams play physical basketball and teams are fouling left and right, shooting percentages will be higher than that of a game where the officials are willing to allow some physicality, and subsequently better defensive positions and fewer shots from the free throw line.

Football totals are uniquely tricky, for a variety of reasons. These are determined by the offensive and defensive capabilities of the opposing teams — and rightly so. However, betting football totals can be tricky simply because yards do not always equal points. It’s not uncommon for a team to have two drives for 70-plus yards each and only end up with a field goal attempt or two. Similarly, a team can struggle to move the football for the majority of the game, make a big play or two on offense, defense or special teams and put 14 points on the board. Execution in the red zone, turnovers, big plays (or the lack thereof) all affect football totals going Over or Under as much or more than the offensive and defensive capabilities of the two teams.

The few key causes outlined above make baseball side wagers difficult for bettors to beat. In order to support a team’s potent offense or superior pitching, the bettor is forced to lay a high price that requires him/her to be right as much as 75 percent of the time just to break even. Similarly, bettors can be disrupted easily if their high-priced starting pitcher gets pulled for a pinch hitter in the sixth inning with the score tied, thus relying on a bullpen that is much less reliable than the starter to earn the victory. However, betting totals in baseball can absolutely become a profitable endeavor, specifically in relation to betting baseball sides. Outlined below are six fundamental reasons why betting baseball totals can result profitably:

1) You can be half wrong and still win your bet

In a game with two strong pitchers on the mound, it’s easy to make a case for the Under. But even if one of the two starters gets hit hard, a 6-1 final score going Under the total is still entirely possible. Two poor pitchers reflect this concept, where the total may be around 9 or 9.5 if both teams are weak at the plate. In this instance, both Over bettors can cash out even if one starter pitches a rare gem because the other could still get rocked, and a 9-3 final as a result is certainly not impossible.

2) You don’t have to lay big prices to bet on or against any pitcher

Linesmakers consistently install high prices on the favorite when the A-list starters take the hill. Why lay a big price to support a strong pitcher when you can bet the Under at -110 and assume much less risk with the same potential reward?

3) The linesmakers don’t have much room to adjust their totals

Baseball totals at will usually range between a low of 7 and a high of 11.5, with the occasional 6.5 or 12. Even when two hot hitting teams face off against two mediocre starters, the total is not going to come to 14. Likewise, when two cold hitting teams face off against two dominant starters, the total is not going to come to 5. That is to say, it’s very difficult for the linesmakers to compensate enough within the confines of the standard range of totals. Linesmakers don’t hesitate to price a dominant favorite at -300, but they don’t have the same ability to adjust when setting baseball totals.

4) The linesmakers are not that confident in their own numbers

Each individual sportsbook sets limits on the amount that can be bet on any particular wager. The casual bettor will rarely hit the sportsbook limits, which is normally several thousand dollars or more on side wagers in baseball, football and basketball. But the bookmakers do not set high limits like that for baseball totals, and many sportsbooks are reluctant to take wagers above $500 or $1,000. Why? Part of the reason is caused by the issues noted above in reason No. 3. Another part stems from the fact that the books get very little “square” money on MLB totals – the books are up against the Wiseguy professional bettors. This means that the books don’t get balanced action on the majority of baseball totals that they hang. The low limits on totals are for one reason alone: the linesmakers aren’t as confident that their numbers are good enough to withstand high stakes wagers from informed bettors.

5) Streaks don’t get noticed by the public or the linesmakers

When any baseball team wins eight straight games, it will surely be the lead story on ESPN’s “Sports Center” and noted by bettors and linesmakers very quickly. The hot team might have been priced as a -140 favorite in its first game of said streak, but with the same two pitchers on the mound following eight straight wins the hot team would likely be much closer to being a -200 favorite. But the general public doesn’t notice Over/Under streaks, and neither does the national media. Teams that are hitting well gain confidence, are more selective at the plate and generally have better at bats. Similarly, teams that are getting good starting pitching don’t stress their bullpens, leaving the relievers much fresher than the teams that are experiencing lousy starting pitching and are subsequently forced to rely on tired bullpens. A run of Unders results in more Unders; a run of Overs results in more Overs, and the linesmakers cannot adjust.

6) Home plate umpires have Under/Over tendencies as much as teams do

In basketball and football, information about the referees is difficult to obtain. There is no single official who has more influence than the others and finding out which refs are slated to officiate which games can be difficult. In baseball, the home plate umpire has a huge impact on the game, more so than any other referee in any major sport. And home plate umpires are no secret — you can easily find out which ump is scheduled behind the plate for any given game. There’s no question that different umpires have different strike zones. Umps with a tighter strike zone force pitchers behind in the count on a consistently, while umps that have a slightly wider strike zone allow the pitchers to get ahead in the count more often. Pitchers get rattled when close calls at the plate don’t go their way, while they gain confidence when they are getting those close calls. Considering that the umpire’s calls reflect their respective strike zones, determining an umpire’s resulting over/under tendencies is critical.

It’s not that baseball sides cannot be beaten or that football and basketball totals are similarly unbeatable. For the reasons outlined above, baseball totals can become a consistent and profitable part of any handicapper’s arsenal.

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