Betting the NFL Preseason

Since the NFL switched to its current four-game exhibition schedule, numerous strategies for betting preseason football have been proven profitable. However, betting those exhibition games is a completely different game than betting in the regular season. Several methods that will maximize any bettor’s bankroll before the regular season begins are outlined below.

1) Ignore the starters
In the majority of preseason games, important players will be on the bench by the second quarter. These same players will be receiving the bulk of the media attention, yet during preseason games they have little impact on the outcome of the game. Preseason games, like regular season ones, are generally won or lost in the second half.

2) Know the coaches
During the preseason, many coaches are simply trying to assess personnel — acquiring the right players for the remaining few slots on the roster — as well as ensuring that the offensive and defensive programs are in order. Conversely, other coaches strive to instill a winning attitude for their team as soon as training camp begins. Stick with coaches who genuinely care about the outcome of the preseason games and try to bet against those who don’t.

3) Read the local papers
The NFL preseason is one point during the season where coachspeak is extremely valuable. This is one time of the year when coaches are willing to unveil their game plans in their entirety. Local papers will present the opportunity to gauge what a coach’s philosophy will be for any given game and provide information on the expected player rotations. Knowing who will be on the field in the second half, when the pointspread is likely to be decided, is paramount.

4) Take advantage of good situational handicapping spots
Every preseason there are a few games that feature a coach who wants to give his starters and second-teamers the majority of the playing time, while the opposing coach is planning on evaluating the bottom of the roster. Similarly, look for teams that start 0-2 straight up and are returning home for the third preseason game. It is likely that the coaches have taken some early criticism for the team’s poor performance and will be seeking to redeem themselves upon returning home. This is an excellent spot to back the home team seeking a win, especially against a less-motivated opposition.

5) Know the third- and fourth-stringers
These are the players who will be on the field in the second half and are generally undrafted rookie free agents. However, there are substantial differences in quality among these players from team to team. Teams with more open roster spots will generally get the better backups into training camp – these same teams had poor records the year before. Avoid laying points with playoff-bound teams from the previous season that have the majority of their roster already filled, as this usually results in the acquisition of low-quality free-agent rookies. The fact of the matter is that there simply aren’t too many positions available on these teams, rendering them unattractive to the better free agents. The players with options attend more than one training camp.

6) Know the quarterback rotations
Plan to bet on teams with veterans playing against third- and fourth-string defenses in the second half. Situations play out every week where experienced QBs will have the opportunity to demonstrate their skills against inferior defenders and will be able to move the ball down the field with relative ease and consistency. Additionally, look to bet against teams playing rookie QBs in the second half, as these young signal-callers are often late-round picks or undrafted free agents. These inexperienced QBs will be unfamiliar with the offensive scheme and the speed of NFL defenders.

7) Don’t forget about the totals
Using the coach’s philosophy and quarterback rotation as a guide, predicting totals can be very profitable. A coach looking to test inexperienced quarterbacks or develop their running game often provide solid Under bets. Conversely, when you know a team has experience at the QB position and is looking to test its passing game, the Over is the way to look.

Utilizing these simple strategies can result in August being a very profitable month for NFL bettors, even in the apparently “meaningless” preseason games. Realistically there are many instances where the informed bettor can boost his/her bankroll before the start of the regular season.

Comments